Would you like to wager on that?

If you know me, then you know that I enjoy a good bet.

It doesn’t have to be Poker, though Poker is a superb game. Most commonly, I look to make bets on predictions, particularly during a lively debate when I hear what sounds like a rather outlandish claim.

Of course, there is a thrill to this!— Whether it’s five bucks, a bottle of your favorite, or dinner on the loser. But aside from the fun of the stakes, it’s an excellent way to gauge the other party’s confidence in their opinion and help calibrate your own.

Overconfidence Trap

We often overestimate the accuracy of our opinions and predictions. This is mainly because we don’t realize how little time we have spent thinking through what we’re talking about. There is a plurality of reasons why we’re prone to this, such as confirmation bias, cognitive ease, motivated reasoning, and so on.

Adding a wager, even a small one, adds an element of risk, prompting us to consider the probability of an event, evaluate our actual confidence, and reduce the impact of these biases on our thinking.

Reducing Bias

For example, let’s say you’re having a lively debate with a friend about… Ikea furniture? Yes, Ikea Furniture. And they say something like, “I’m sure I can assemble this IKEA furniture without looking at the instructions or having any parts left over.”

Asking them to put a small bet on it might lead them to reassess. They might realize their statement is based more on optimism than on a careful analysis of their furniture assembly skills and the complexity of the piece.

In other words, we’re forcing ourselves into probabilistic thinking, which allows us to engage in a more deliberate thinking process and evaluate the quality of thought behind ‘the take.’

The cool part is you don’t even have to make a bet with your friend. Simply stepping back and asking yourself,” How much would I be willing to bet on this?” can help calibrate your confidence level and gain insight into the quality of your reasoning.

It’s a powerful tool for reality-checking our assumptions and improving decision-making.

Free Food (and Better Thinking)

So the next time you discuss an outcome you expect with your friends, be it in politics or otherwise, remember to pause and ask,” Would you like to wager on that?”

And who knows? You might win a free dinner in the process.